Post by Peter Gross on Apr 28, 2010 7:05:30 GMT -5
Who will win the Kentucky Derby? I haven't got a clue. Every year, the lead-up to the Run for the Roses tends to produce a standout, a brilliant colt heads and shoulders above the rest of the thousands of three year-olds running in the United States and Canada. Big Brown, Street Sense, Barbaro, Smarty Jones, Funnycide...But this year...not so much.
True, Todd Pletcher's Eskendereya, a son of Giant's Causeway, looked to be the guy after his convincing wins in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream and the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, the first by almost nine lengths, the second by almost ten. But Eskendereya showed some swelling in a front leg and Pletcher has scratched his star.
And that leaves a mess. Millions will be bet on the Derby at Churchill Downs, which means someone has to be the favourite and it appears that the Bob Baffert trained Looking At Lucky will inherit that burden. I guess you could do worse. Looking At Lucky, a son of Private Feeling out of the Great Canadian mare Smart Strike, won five races as a two year-old, ending his rookie season by capturing the Gr l Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood at a mile and a sixteenth. This year, Looking At Lucky has raced only twice. he won the Gr 2 Rebel Stakes at Oklahoma Park, but was third to Sidney's Candy in the nine furlong Santa Anita Derby on April 3rd. The chart line indicates that Looking At Lucky did not have the best possible trip; he was steadied and dropped back on the second turn, but still rallied nicely for the show spot as the 4-5 favourite.
Many of the other prep races for this year's Derby produced shocking longshot winners..Ice Box, trained by Nick Zito got his nose in front of Pleasant Prince at the end of the Mile and an eighth Florida Derby at Gulfstream in March. Ice Box was over 20-1.
Stately Victor went off at 40-1, the longest shot, in the Gr l Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 10, but was pulling away by more than four lengths at the wire. Stately Victor is a son of Ghostzapper and is trained by Michael Maker.
Line of David, trained by John Sadler, surprised in the Arkansas Derby, shading Super Saver by a neck at odds of 17-1. And Mission Impazible, a son of Unbridled's Song, won the Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds in March, paying $16.20.
If there's one thing I've noticed in five decades of fruitless horse betting, it's that huge longshots never repeat their wins. So you could toss Ice Box, Stately Victor and Mission Impazible and probably not suffer any regrets. But where to from there?
Well, who ran close to Eskendereya? If Eskendereya was the best of the competitive three year-olds it sort of figures that anyone not terribly crushed by that one will perform well in the Derby. Jackson Bend actually went off as 5-2 second favourite against Eskendereya (7-2) in the Fountain of Youth and came second and then was second in the Wood. Each time the margin was measured in time zones, but no other horse was closer.
Super Saver was just a neck back of Line Of David in the Arkansas; that could easily be reversed. In that same race, Noble's Promise was installed as the 8-5 favourite, but had a bad break, was bumped early and steadied late. Everyone will see what appears to be a well-beaten fifth on his resume, but that one might bounce back . Also, Noble's Promise was second in the Rebel Stakes to Looking At Lucky. If Looking At Lucky is 3-1 and Noble's Promise is 20-1, you've stumbled on what we like to call 'value' at the track.
A horse called Paddy O'Prado won't be ridden by Edgar Prado, but I like this one's second to Stately Victor in the Blue Grass. Paddy O'Prado was leading in the stretch and made most of the front-running in that race. It was just his second race of the year, so he could definitely have earned some 'bottom' and be prepared to run a much tougher race at a mile and a quarter.Paddy O'Prado's first race this year was a win at nine furlongs on the turf over Dean's Kitten who went on to win the Gr 2 Lane's Stakes at Turfway at odds of 6.5-1, so that makes Paddy O'Prado a more attractive selection.
Back to the Blue Grass. The favourite, at 3-1, was Interactif, who did not get a particularly wonderful ride from Rafael Bejarano who took Interactif six-wide into the stretch and simply covered too much territory. This would be another horse that could win, pay $30-$40 and we'd all slap our heads and say, "Why didn't I see that!"
In the Florida Derby, Rule finished 3rd as the 9-5 lukewarm choice. There didn't seem to be any real excuse for his fade job in the stretch, but he's another who will be making the Kentucky Derby his third start of 2010 and maybe he just hasn't raced enough or maybe he comes up with his lifetime best and wins this.
Then there's Awesome Act, a son of the great Canadian colt, Awesome Again. Awesome Act looked, well, awesome winning the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, coasting to the wire a length and change ahead of Yawanna Twist. Awesome Act paid just &7.70 and being that daddy won the Breeders' Cup Classic and the Queen's Plate, the ten furlongs of the Derby would clearly be within the capacity of his genes.
They'll be drawing post positions today for the Derby and that might help the handicappers but don't let a high post discourage you. There is a remarkable history of horses from the outside winning or hitting the board. Charasmatic in 1999 scored from post 16 and paid $31.30. the next year it was Fusiachi Pegasus out of the 15th slot. and in 2001, Monarchos not only scored at 10-1 from post 16, but he stopped the clock in 1:59.97, fastest time since Secretariat posted a 1:59 in 1973 - from post 10. And in 2008, Big Brown went off at 2.40-1 and won by almost five lengths, despite the fact that they stuck him in post position 20, just a length or two from the valet parking.
What we're trying to communicate here is that when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, toss out all your conventional handicapping tools. Steer yourself away from the low-price horses, seek out something that appears capable of running a mile and a quarter and don't let runner-up or third place finishes in recent races discourage you. It's a real crap shoot this year. Make sure you get....'value'.
True, Todd Pletcher's Eskendereya, a son of Giant's Causeway, looked to be the guy after his convincing wins in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream and the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, the first by almost nine lengths, the second by almost ten. But Eskendereya showed some swelling in a front leg and Pletcher has scratched his star.
And that leaves a mess. Millions will be bet on the Derby at Churchill Downs, which means someone has to be the favourite and it appears that the Bob Baffert trained Looking At Lucky will inherit that burden. I guess you could do worse. Looking At Lucky, a son of Private Feeling out of the Great Canadian mare Smart Strike, won five races as a two year-old, ending his rookie season by capturing the Gr l Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood at a mile and a sixteenth. This year, Looking At Lucky has raced only twice. he won the Gr 2 Rebel Stakes at Oklahoma Park, but was third to Sidney's Candy in the nine furlong Santa Anita Derby on April 3rd. The chart line indicates that Looking At Lucky did not have the best possible trip; he was steadied and dropped back on the second turn, but still rallied nicely for the show spot as the 4-5 favourite.
Many of the other prep races for this year's Derby produced shocking longshot winners..Ice Box, trained by Nick Zito got his nose in front of Pleasant Prince at the end of the Mile and an eighth Florida Derby at Gulfstream in March. Ice Box was over 20-1.
Stately Victor went off at 40-1, the longest shot, in the Gr l Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 10, but was pulling away by more than four lengths at the wire. Stately Victor is a son of Ghostzapper and is trained by Michael Maker.
Line of David, trained by John Sadler, surprised in the Arkansas Derby, shading Super Saver by a neck at odds of 17-1. And Mission Impazible, a son of Unbridled's Song, won the Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds in March, paying $16.20.
If there's one thing I've noticed in five decades of fruitless horse betting, it's that huge longshots never repeat their wins. So you could toss Ice Box, Stately Victor and Mission Impazible and probably not suffer any regrets. But where to from there?
Well, who ran close to Eskendereya? If Eskendereya was the best of the competitive three year-olds it sort of figures that anyone not terribly crushed by that one will perform well in the Derby. Jackson Bend actually went off as 5-2 second favourite against Eskendereya (7-2) in the Fountain of Youth and came second and then was second in the Wood. Each time the margin was measured in time zones, but no other horse was closer.
Super Saver was just a neck back of Line Of David in the Arkansas; that could easily be reversed. In that same race, Noble's Promise was installed as the 8-5 favourite, but had a bad break, was bumped early and steadied late. Everyone will see what appears to be a well-beaten fifth on his resume, but that one might bounce back . Also, Noble's Promise was second in the Rebel Stakes to Looking At Lucky. If Looking At Lucky is 3-1 and Noble's Promise is 20-1, you've stumbled on what we like to call 'value' at the track.
A horse called Paddy O'Prado won't be ridden by Edgar Prado, but I like this one's second to Stately Victor in the Blue Grass. Paddy O'Prado was leading in the stretch and made most of the front-running in that race. It was just his second race of the year, so he could definitely have earned some 'bottom' and be prepared to run a much tougher race at a mile and a quarter.Paddy O'Prado's first race this year was a win at nine furlongs on the turf over Dean's Kitten who went on to win the Gr 2 Lane's Stakes at Turfway at odds of 6.5-1, so that makes Paddy O'Prado a more attractive selection.
Back to the Blue Grass. The favourite, at 3-1, was Interactif, who did not get a particularly wonderful ride from Rafael Bejarano who took Interactif six-wide into the stretch and simply covered too much territory. This would be another horse that could win, pay $30-$40 and we'd all slap our heads and say, "Why didn't I see that!"
In the Florida Derby, Rule finished 3rd as the 9-5 lukewarm choice. There didn't seem to be any real excuse for his fade job in the stretch, but he's another who will be making the Kentucky Derby his third start of 2010 and maybe he just hasn't raced enough or maybe he comes up with his lifetime best and wins this.
Then there's Awesome Act, a son of the great Canadian colt, Awesome Again. Awesome Act looked, well, awesome winning the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, coasting to the wire a length and change ahead of Yawanna Twist. Awesome Act paid just &7.70 and being that daddy won the Breeders' Cup Classic and the Queen's Plate, the ten furlongs of the Derby would clearly be within the capacity of his genes.
They'll be drawing post positions today for the Derby and that might help the handicappers but don't let a high post discourage you. There is a remarkable history of horses from the outside winning or hitting the board. Charasmatic in 1999 scored from post 16 and paid $31.30. the next year it was Fusiachi Pegasus out of the 15th slot. and in 2001, Monarchos not only scored at 10-1 from post 16, but he stopped the clock in 1:59.97, fastest time since Secretariat posted a 1:59 in 1973 - from post 10. And in 2008, Big Brown went off at 2.40-1 and won by almost five lengths, despite the fact that they stuck him in post position 20, just a length or two from the valet parking.
What we're trying to communicate here is that when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, toss out all your conventional handicapping tools. Steer yourself away from the low-price horses, seek out something that appears capable of running a mile and a quarter and don't let runner-up or third place finishes in recent races discourage you. It's a real crap shoot this year. Make sure you get....'value'.
