Post by Peter Gross on Oct 29, 2009 4:51:52 GMT -5
I may have neglected to sum up how I did in the somewhat less than historic 50 days of doubles that started in August and ran into October. The idea was that I would forsake all forms of betting, except for horse race doubles. I had to resist the urge to bet pro-line, scratch tickets, 649, that new rip-off lottery Lotto-Max and of course, the crack cocaine of gambling - the slots.
It was, at best, a mixed experience. I did hit a lot of doubles and some paid really well, but at the end of the 50 days, I had lost $200, which reinforces the idea that gambling on anything is usually a losing proposition.
My experience yesterday, does show that there is still much more value in betting on the horses than anything else. I spent $16 on proline - four tickets, $4 each. I took the Phillies to win and the Sabres-Devils to go under, but I liked the Sharks-Kings to go over ( 2-1 San Jose). Even if I'd been right, my payoff for $4 would have been $30, or less than 8-1.
I was also betting the races last night, and after hitting a tiny double at Woodbine ( $20) and a puny exactor in the 3rd ( $15), I like Emma-Jayne Wilson on Mrs. Cleaver in the fourth. I hit her win and place and had the exactor ($44.80) for a buck. That was worth more than $50 to me, but it was the sixth race that really enriched me. Steve Bahen is not the most successful jockey; he's not even in Woodbine's top ten (he's 17th). But don't interpret that as indicating he's not a very good rider. I've had an amazing year betting Bahen in 2009. I hit him twice on a horse called I'm a Moon Too; 17-1 the first time, 30-1 the second time. So every time I',m betting Woodbine and I see Bahen on a horse, I try and make an argument for him. In the sixth last night, he was on Reel Tipsy, a 19-1 shot. Except Reel Tipsy looked to me as if it had a real shot. It was shortening up, had only 5 lifetime races and all of her finishes compared reasonably with the more heavily bet horses in the race. I bet Reel Tipsy $4 wp and in $1 exactors with several horses. Bahen rode her perfectly, staying towards the inside down the backstretch and when he decided to split horses in deep stretch, the filly had plenty of run, hitting the wire a good half length ahead of the heavy favourite San Souci. I got back $110 for my win/place and another $70 because the exactor was a pumped up $141, a wonderful payoff with the 6-5 favourite second in a 7-horse field.
Anyway, the point is...I cashed almost $200 and wasn't required to pick three outcomes - just one forthe win/place and two for the exactor. For the billionth time, betting on the races proves to be more profitable than betting on lotteries.
This is a funny time of year for the horses. While the Breeders' Cup is just a few days away, many of the very good horses have accomplished all they're going to do and you have horses going in different directions. Many in a field will be all used up, while a few may be under-raced and much fresher than the others. This is the time of the year where a player should be especially sceptical of a favourite. Last night at Woodbine, only one horse scored as the choice.
oh..in the last race ( after I'd fallen asleep), Bahen brought in Toodle Oo at 7.35-1, finishing off a late double that was worth $178.
I think that makes my point.
It was, at best, a mixed experience. I did hit a lot of doubles and some paid really well, but at the end of the 50 days, I had lost $200, which reinforces the idea that gambling on anything is usually a losing proposition.
My experience yesterday, does show that there is still much more value in betting on the horses than anything else. I spent $16 on proline - four tickets, $4 each. I took the Phillies to win and the Sabres-Devils to go under, but I liked the Sharks-Kings to go over ( 2-1 San Jose). Even if I'd been right, my payoff for $4 would have been $30, or less than 8-1.
I was also betting the races last night, and after hitting a tiny double at Woodbine ( $20) and a puny exactor in the 3rd ( $15), I like Emma-Jayne Wilson on Mrs. Cleaver in the fourth. I hit her win and place and had the exactor ($44.80) for a buck. That was worth more than $50 to me, but it was the sixth race that really enriched me. Steve Bahen is not the most successful jockey; he's not even in Woodbine's top ten (he's 17th). But don't interpret that as indicating he's not a very good rider. I've had an amazing year betting Bahen in 2009. I hit him twice on a horse called I'm a Moon Too; 17-1 the first time, 30-1 the second time. So every time I',m betting Woodbine and I see Bahen on a horse, I try and make an argument for him. In the sixth last night, he was on Reel Tipsy, a 19-1 shot. Except Reel Tipsy looked to me as if it had a real shot. It was shortening up, had only 5 lifetime races and all of her finishes compared reasonably with the more heavily bet horses in the race. I bet Reel Tipsy $4 wp and in $1 exactors with several horses. Bahen rode her perfectly, staying towards the inside down the backstretch and when he decided to split horses in deep stretch, the filly had plenty of run, hitting the wire a good half length ahead of the heavy favourite San Souci. I got back $110 for my win/place and another $70 because the exactor was a pumped up $141, a wonderful payoff with the 6-5 favourite second in a 7-horse field.
Anyway, the point is...I cashed almost $200 and wasn't required to pick three outcomes - just one forthe win/place and two for the exactor. For the billionth time, betting on the races proves to be more profitable than betting on lotteries.
This is a funny time of year for the horses. While the Breeders' Cup is just a few days away, many of the very good horses have accomplished all they're going to do and you have horses going in different directions. Many in a field will be all used up, while a few may be under-raced and much fresher than the others. This is the time of the year where a player should be especially sceptical of a favourite. Last night at Woodbine, only one horse scored as the choice.
oh..in the last race ( after I'd fallen asleep), Bahen brought in Toodle Oo at 7.35-1, finishing off a late double that was worth $178.
I think that makes my point.
