Post by Peter Gross on Jun 4, 2009 6:56:00 GMT -5
Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird is listed as 2-1 to win the Belmont on Saturday and while I expect he'll be much lower than that - I'm figuring 8-5 - numbers wise, he towers over this field. Let's look at the chances and past performances of each horse.
Mine That Bird: the 'Bird' has 5 wins in ten lifetime races. No other horse in the field has won more than 3 times. Four of the ten horses are seeking their second win. Huge advantage for Mine That Bird. His last two races, of course, justify his low odds; that remarkable win at 50-1 in the Derby and a similar rally from last place to be second to the great filly Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness. No other horse in this field has a race equal to either of those. Mine That Bird should win simply because of his recent skill level, a comfort zone he's achieved now that he knows he can dominate these. Also, having Calvin Borel back on top is like the cherry on a Triple Crown sundae. Is Mine That Bird a sure thing? Not at all. The mile and a half is a rarely navigated distance and Belmont's dirt track can be hard on horses' legs. There's a few fresh horses in this field who just might be sitting on a lifetime best race ( as 'Bird' did in the Derby). Also - and this could really matter to Mine That Bird - There isn't a single pure speed horse in the race. If there's no pace whatsoever (let's say the three quarters goes in 1:14) , Mine That Bird will find it much harder to swoop the field.
Brave Victory:
Trained by Nick Zito, Brave Victory is over his head here. He has just two lifetime wins. a maiden and an allowance score, came third beaten over 5 lengths by Charitable Man in the Peter Pan and has won only $110,000. Both his wins were in sprints; 12 furlongs probably isn't his preferred distance.
Charitable Man:
Most likely the second favourite on June 6. Charitable Man has won three of his four races. His last quarter in winning the Peter Pan went in a credible :12.4. What is most scary about him is that in stalking the pace in the Peter Pan, Charitable Man was timed in 1:09.2 to the six furlong mark, which means if he decides to cut the pace and no one challenges him, he might not be caught. Definitely the horse with the best chance to deny Mine That Bird.
Chocolate Candy:
I liked this horse in the Kentucky Derby, but he was squeezed at the start and ended up 5th. he does have four wins in ten races and a strong come off the pace talent. His bets Beyer figure of 95 is much inferior to the 106/105 back to back posted by Mine That Bird. He would have to run much the best race of his career to be first or second here.
Dunkirk:
Another lightly raced colt who had traffic problems in the Derby. Dunkirk won the Florida Derby in a strong time (1:47.3 for nine furlongs) and a 100 Beyer and he has worked out nicely since the demolition Derby. If he's at his best, he will hit the top three.
Flying Private:
In spite of a nice fourth place finish in the Preakness and a 104 Beyer, this one doesn't get me excited. His dozen starts makes him the most experienced in the field, but he's also the most experienced at losing with 11 also-rans to go with just on maiden victory. Went off at 46-1 in the Derby and was beaten by 43 lengths. Discuss amongst yourselves.
Luv Gov:
Way out of his comfort zone in this race. Luv Gov broke his maiden on Derby Day and then was beaten by almost 9 lengths by Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness. A pair of 94 Beyers in his last two races suggests he won't get within half a dozen of the winner on Saturday
Miner's Escape:
Although he did win his last two races( what is the Federico Tesio 73K, anyway?) Miner's Escape is the slowest horse in this field with a high Beyer of 89.
Mr. Hot Stuff:
Like Mine That Bird, Mr. Hot Stuff likes to sit at the back of the pack. Unlike Mine That Bird, Mr. Hot Stuff isn't likely to make a huge move to the front. He has just one win and no seconds in eight races. He did come third, just 2 lengths behind Pioneerof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby if you're looking hard for some kind of justification to bet him.
Summer Bird:
This Bird was 13 lengths behind the other Bird in the Kentucky Derby. In three previous races, Summer Bird did show a nice come off the pace ability. There is a myth about coming off the pace in the Belmont; that it's such a long race the front-runners will grow weary and yield to the back of the pack. The reality is that the Belmont is so long, the horses that trail become too tired after a mile to mount the kind of energy it takes to make up real estate between themselves and the leaders.
What to bet: Huge exactor boxes on Mine That Bird with Charitable Man and Dunkirk. Tris with Mine That Bird top and bottom with Charitable Man and Dunkirk with the field in third.
Mine That Bird: the 'Bird' has 5 wins in ten lifetime races. No other horse in the field has won more than 3 times. Four of the ten horses are seeking their second win. Huge advantage for Mine That Bird. His last two races, of course, justify his low odds; that remarkable win at 50-1 in the Derby and a similar rally from last place to be second to the great filly Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness. No other horse in this field has a race equal to either of those. Mine That Bird should win simply because of his recent skill level, a comfort zone he's achieved now that he knows he can dominate these. Also, having Calvin Borel back on top is like the cherry on a Triple Crown sundae. Is Mine That Bird a sure thing? Not at all. The mile and a half is a rarely navigated distance and Belmont's dirt track can be hard on horses' legs. There's a few fresh horses in this field who just might be sitting on a lifetime best race ( as 'Bird' did in the Derby). Also - and this could really matter to Mine That Bird - There isn't a single pure speed horse in the race. If there's no pace whatsoever (let's say the three quarters goes in 1:14) , Mine That Bird will find it much harder to swoop the field.
Brave Victory:
Trained by Nick Zito, Brave Victory is over his head here. He has just two lifetime wins. a maiden and an allowance score, came third beaten over 5 lengths by Charitable Man in the Peter Pan and has won only $110,000. Both his wins were in sprints; 12 furlongs probably isn't his preferred distance.
Charitable Man:
Most likely the second favourite on June 6. Charitable Man has won three of his four races. His last quarter in winning the Peter Pan went in a credible :12.4. What is most scary about him is that in stalking the pace in the Peter Pan, Charitable Man was timed in 1:09.2 to the six furlong mark, which means if he decides to cut the pace and no one challenges him, he might not be caught. Definitely the horse with the best chance to deny Mine That Bird.
Chocolate Candy:
I liked this horse in the Kentucky Derby, but he was squeezed at the start and ended up 5th. he does have four wins in ten races and a strong come off the pace talent. His bets Beyer figure of 95 is much inferior to the 106/105 back to back posted by Mine That Bird. He would have to run much the best race of his career to be first or second here.
Dunkirk:
Another lightly raced colt who had traffic problems in the Derby. Dunkirk won the Florida Derby in a strong time (1:47.3 for nine furlongs) and a 100 Beyer and he has worked out nicely since the demolition Derby. If he's at his best, he will hit the top three.
Flying Private:
In spite of a nice fourth place finish in the Preakness and a 104 Beyer, this one doesn't get me excited. His dozen starts makes him the most experienced in the field, but he's also the most experienced at losing with 11 also-rans to go with just on maiden victory. Went off at 46-1 in the Derby and was beaten by 43 lengths. Discuss amongst yourselves.
Luv Gov:
Way out of his comfort zone in this race. Luv Gov broke his maiden on Derby Day and then was beaten by almost 9 lengths by Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness. A pair of 94 Beyers in his last two races suggests he won't get within half a dozen of the winner on Saturday
Miner's Escape:
Although he did win his last two races( what is the Federico Tesio 73K, anyway?) Miner's Escape is the slowest horse in this field with a high Beyer of 89.
Mr. Hot Stuff:
Like Mine That Bird, Mr. Hot Stuff likes to sit at the back of the pack. Unlike Mine That Bird, Mr. Hot Stuff isn't likely to make a huge move to the front. He has just one win and no seconds in eight races. He did come third, just 2 lengths behind Pioneerof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby if you're looking hard for some kind of justification to bet him.
Summer Bird:
This Bird was 13 lengths behind the other Bird in the Kentucky Derby. In three previous races, Summer Bird did show a nice come off the pace ability. There is a myth about coming off the pace in the Belmont; that it's such a long race the front-runners will grow weary and yield to the back of the pack. The reality is that the Belmont is so long, the horses that trail become too tired after a mile to mount the kind of energy it takes to make up real estate between themselves and the leaders.
What to bet: Huge exactor boxes on Mine That Bird with Charitable Man and Dunkirk. Tris with Mine That Bird top and bottom with Charitable Man and Dunkirk with the field in third.
