Post by Peter Gross on Sept 16, 2010 6:48:45 GMT -5
I’ve been thinking about gambling odds lately; actually I spend a lot of my time thinking of odds. However, it’s this new Poker game that the Lottery corporation has introduced. To be sure, it is a tempting seductress. You cough up your $2 and your poker hand instantly appears on the lottery screen. It’s the fastest lottery ever, certainly quicker than a scratch ticket and payment is made immediately. The OLG has wisely tapped into the huge poker phenomena and they’ve added a wrinkle to add to the appeal – even if you lose on the five cards dealt you, a second draw is conducted at night and you can win by matching as few as two of the cards on your slip.
But I’m here to tell you that this game offers the worst odds of any endeavor offered by the OLG. For example, after your five cards zap on screen in less than 2 seconds, if you get a pair of jacks (or higher) the payoff is a free ticket. But mathematically, a high pair defies odds of 7.7-1. According to the true odds, you should be paid $15.40. Of course, the Lottery needs to take a big slice, which appropriately goes to hospitals and other charities, but the player should at least understand the odds before he bets. If you’re dealt two pair, you win $2 (or your money back), even though the math says that two pair happen every 21 hands. If you got $42 for two pair, that would be great; $2 represents less than 5% of the true odds payment for that. In the slots at Woodbine on video poker, with which I have a passing familiarity, you can use all or none of your first five cards and get up to five more. So even though you can get twice as many cards, two pair pays 2-1, or $4 on a $2 bet.
Three of a kind in instant poker gets you $5, though the odds against it are 47-1. Last night, in a local variety store, the man in front of me bought a poker hand and he got a straight, for which he happily accepted $20. Good thing the guy didn’t know that a straight defies odds of 255-1. The man got 9-1 or about 1/26th of the true odds.
I admit to playing this game. It’s just too much instant gratification to ignore. On the fourth ticket I bought, I received two fives and three tens – a full house. Not bad, the guy in the PetroCan station made me sign it and immediately paid me $75, which I guess sounds pretty good. Except a full house will be drawn, on average, once every 649 hands. According to the odds, I deserved $1298.
The toughest hand to be dealt is the royal flush, which you will see, more or less, once in 649,740 times. If you get it in the new poker game, they pay you $5000.
To their credit, the OLG prints all these odds on their webpage, easily accessible when you click on the Poker Lotto page.
And based on the results from the first two weeks of this game, it’s a huge hit. Every time I’ve been in store or a gas station, there have been people lining up to play. For Wednesday, September 15, the OLG displayed the payoffs for 91,827. Since the lottery claims that 59.9% of tickets are winners, we can calculate that over $150,000 worth of tickets was purchased. For one game, every day, that’s a lottery success story.
Ok, why am I telling you this in a horse racing blog? Well, last Friday, I hit the final daily double at Woodbine. The first horse paid $21.10, the second paid $9.50. I received $105. There were 11 horses in the first race and 12 in the second, so the natural odds were (11 X 12) 131-1. So my payoff was about 75% of the math of simply picking any two numbers. Mind you, I was able to reject several horses in each race simply because they didn’t fit my handicapping criteria.
The next day, I scored a double at Belmont that kicked back $111. I was particularly please with that payoff since the first horse was 4-1 and the second was 7.7-1. You multiply that together and you get 30.8-1, which at the track would pay you $63.60. So my payoff was almost $47 more than a parlay. There were 7 horses in the first leg and 8 in the second, so the random odds were 56-1. $111 represents odds of 54.5-1. I received very close to 100% of the true odds.
Then yesterday, I bet the double spanning the 3rd and 4th races at Woodbine. The first winner was 7.1-1 and was a surprisingly easy winner from a small field of 5. When the next race was won, also by a horse at 7.1-1, my double paid a lovely $128, or odds of 63-1 on my $2 bet. There were 8 horses in the second race so the actual random odds were 56-1.
I’ve been playing the races since the Eisenhower administration. It’s all science and math to me. I have very specific handicapping rules I apply to each race and each bet. But for a person who might pick numbers out of the sky, or off his phone number or area code, it’s obvious that betting the horses offers a much fairer and more lucrative payoff.
If you defy odds of 21-1 in Poker Lotto, they pay you $2. Do the same at the track and they’ll gladly give you over $30.
I know what risk I prefer.
But I’m here to tell you that this game offers the worst odds of any endeavor offered by the OLG. For example, after your five cards zap on screen in less than 2 seconds, if you get a pair of jacks (or higher) the payoff is a free ticket. But mathematically, a high pair defies odds of 7.7-1. According to the true odds, you should be paid $15.40. Of course, the Lottery needs to take a big slice, which appropriately goes to hospitals and other charities, but the player should at least understand the odds before he bets. If you’re dealt two pair, you win $2 (or your money back), even though the math says that two pair happen every 21 hands. If you got $42 for two pair, that would be great; $2 represents less than 5% of the true odds payment for that. In the slots at Woodbine on video poker, with which I have a passing familiarity, you can use all or none of your first five cards and get up to five more. So even though you can get twice as many cards, two pair pays 2-1, or $4 on a $2 bet.
Three of a kind in instant poker gets you $5, though the odds against it are 47-1. Last night, in a local variety store, the man in front of me bought a poker hand and he got a straight, for which he happily accepted $20. Good thing the guy didn’t know that a straight defies odds of 255-1. The man got 9-1 or about 1/26th of the true odds.
I admit to playing this game. It’s just too much instant gratification to ignore. On the fourth ticket I bought, I received two fives and three tens – a full house. Not bad, the guy in the PetroCan station made me sign it and immediately paid me $75, which I guess sounds pretty good. Except a full house will be drawn, on average, once every 649 hands. According to the odds, I deserved $1298.
The toughest hand to be dealt is the royal flush, which you will see, more or less, once in 649,740 times. If you get it in the new poker game, they pay you $5000.
To their credit, the OLG prints all these odds on their webpage, easily accessible when you click on the Poker Lotto page.
And based on the results from the first two weeks of this game, it’s a huge hit. Every time I’ve been in store or a gas station, there have been people lining up to play. For Wednesday, September 15, the OLG displayed the payoffs for 91,827. Since the lottery claims that 59.9% of tickets are winners, we can calculate that over $150,000 worth of tickets was purchased. For one game, every day, that’s a lottery success story.
Ok, why am I telling you this in a horse racing blog? Well, last Friday, I hit the final daily double at Woodbine. The first horse paid $21.10, the second paid $9.50. I received $105. There were 11 horses in the first race and 12 in the second, so the natural odds were (11 X 12) 131-1. So my payoff was about 75% of the math of simply picking any two numbers. Mind you, I was able to reject several horses in each race simply because they didn’t fit my handicapping criteria.
The next day, I scored a double at Belmont that kicked back $111. I was particularly please with that payoff since the first horse was 4-1 and the second was 7.7-1. You multiply that together and you get 30.8-1, which at the track would pay you $63.60. So my payoff was almost $47 more than a parlay. There were 7 horses in the first leg and 8 in the second, so the random odds were 56-1. $111 represents odds of 54.5-1. I received very close to 100% of the true odds.
Then yesterday, I bet the double spanning the 3rd and 4th races at Woodbine. The first winner was 7.1-1 and was a surprisingly easy winner from a small field of 5. When the next race was won, also by a horse at 7.1-1, my double paid a lovely $128, or odds of 63-1 on my $2 bet. There were 8 horses in the second race so the actual random odds were 56-1.
I’ve been playing the races since the Eisenhower administration. It’s all science and math to me. I have very specific handicapping rules I apply to each race and each bet. But for a person who might pick numbers out of the sky, or off his phone number or area code, it’s obvious that betting the horses offers a much fairer and more lucrative payoff.
If you defy odds of 21-1 in Poker Lotto, they pay you $2. Do the same at the track and they’ll gladly give you over $30.
I know what risk I prefer.
