Post by Peter Gross on Nov 2, 2009 7:01:16 GMT -5
Last week I wrote about daily doubles and I alluded to how betting on the horses offers the player the best odds and potential payoffs. I wish to re-inforce that idea today with a look at the new Lotto Max offered by the generous Ontario Lottery Corp. This is the draw that has replaced Super 7. In Super 7 you paid $2 for a ticket. Lotto Max asks for $5. Same number (49), so exactly the same ridiculously low odds of winning...but check out what they did. In Super 7, if you had 3 of 7 numbers and the bonus, you won $10. Bad enough, considering the odds of doing that are 76.7-1. In Lotto Max 3 0f 7 and the bonus pays $20. And this sucks - why? Because you've just paid 2.5 times the normal price and you were paid off only twice the past amount. If you bet $5 on a horse that closed at 5-2 on the board and it won, you'd get back $17.50. You'd be royally pissed if they changed that to just $15 (2-1), but that's what the OLG has done. Made you paid two and half times as much, but only applied 2-1 to the only payoff you have any reasonable chance of winning. At the track, if the odds are 76.7 -1 one before takeout, a winning $2 ticket would be worth about $120. A winning $5 ticket under the same conditions would pay $300. Lotto Max pays $20. It gets worse with the bigger prizes. This weekend, 5 of 7 in Lotto Max (defying odds of 1,584-1) paid $115. The last four Super 7 payoffs for 5 of 7 paid, $95, 98, 95 and 101. In other words, even though the ticket cost 250% more, the payoff increased less than 25%. 1,584-1 at the track after takeout would pay about $6000 on a $5 bet, or about 60 times as much for the same degree of difficulty . If lottery players had the vaguest sense of math, they would be apoplectic and never play the stupid game again. Lottery addicts, however, are the dumbest of all gamblers (or maybe it's the slots players). Horse bettors wouldn't stand for an 80% shrinkage of their payoffs.
Ok, got that out of my system. Now let's get ready for the Breeders' Cup. Here's a question - have they undermined the effectiveness of the Breeders' Cup by putting 7 more races on Friday. I'm saying yes because I've lost track of what horses are running in what races. It's all great racing, to be sure and the field will be full of talented horses and jockeys, but it feels diluted to me. Kind of like making the World Series a best of 11.
I'm sure the Canadian connections of ten horse don't necessarily share my concerns. Any time you get to run for a $ million or more, there's little to complain about. The wonderful filly Careless Jewel gets a break when she runs in the $2 million Ladies Classic at a mile and an 8th on Friday because the unbeaten Zenyatta has chosen to take on the boys in the mile and a quarter Classic the next day. Careless Jewel will be ridden by Robert Landry and there is no better human being on the planet who would deserved to win a Breeders Cup race. Careless Jewel comes in on a five race win streak; she won the Fitz Dixon Cotillion at Philadelphia on October 4 after her brilliant 11-length conquest of the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes at Saratoga in August.
Landry also gets the call on Bridgetown , Eugen Melnyk's excellent two year-old colt. Bridgetown won the Grade 3 Summer Stakes by a lengths and a half and will run on Friday in one of the new races, the Juvenile Colts Turf.
Square Eddy, unable to run in the Queen's Plate because of injury will represent Paul Reddam in either the Dirt Sprint or the Turf Sprint. Square Eddy, a son of the great stallion Smart Strike was second in the Juvenile race last year. Reddam has also entered veteran Red Rocks in the Turf, a race Red Rocks won in 2006.
Jockey Eurico Rosa da Silva has two very strong chances for his first BC victory. He'll ride the four year-old Fatal Bullet in the Spring on Saturday. Da Silva has had the pleasure of firing Fatal Bullet to an impressive win in the Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland on October 9. da Silva will also ride Biofuel, which like Fatal Bullet is trained by Reade Baker. Biofuel, a two year old filly will try and parlay her win in the Grade 3 Mazarine Stakes into a greater win in the BC Juvenile Fillies at a mile and a sixteenth.
You don't have to be a genius to think Frank Stronach has a shot in the Breeders' Cup Classic with Einstein, though to win, he'll have to pin Zenyatta with her first career loss.
Mine That Bird, Canada's two year-old champion, who has not won since the Kentucky Derby has been entered into the Classic
Trainer Steve Asmussen will be sending Jungle Tale to the Juvenile Fillies Turf and the Ontario bred Bickerson, a two year-old filly who has been racing in California will take her best shot in the Juvenile Fillies race.
Friday and Saturday - my confusion notwithstanding will be two long days of great betting on amazing fields for huge amounts of money, Trust me, there will be some wild payoffs, a lot of horse wearing 11, 12 ,13 and 14 on their saddle cloths hitting the board, and somewhere in there ( my prediction) a win by a Canadian horse and a Woodbine based jockey.
Ok, got that out of my system. Now let's get ready for the Breeders' Cup. Here's a question - have they undermined the effectiveness of the Breeders' Cup by putting 7 more races on Friday. I'm saying yes because I've lost track of what horses are running in what races. It's all great racing, to be sure and the field will be full of talented horses and jockeys, but it feels diluted to me. Kind of like making the World Series a best of 11.
I'm sure the Canadian connections of ten horse don't necessarily share my concerns. Any time you get to run for a $ million or more, there's little to complain about. The wonderful filly Careless Jewel gets a break when she runs in the $2 million Ladies Classic at a mile and an 8th on Friday because the unbeaten Zenyatta has chosen to take on the boys in the mile and a quarter Classic the next day. Careless Jewel will be ridden by Robert Landry and there is no better human being on the planet who would deserved to win a Breeders Cup race. Careless Jewel comes in on a five race win streak; she won the Fitz Dixon Cotillion at Philadelphia on October 4 after her brilliant 11-length conquest of the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes at Saratoga in August.
Landry also gets the call on Bridgetown , Eugen Melnyk's excellent two year-old colt. Bridgetown won the Grade 3 Summer Stakes by a lengths and a half and will run on Friday in one of the new races, the Juvenile Colts Turf.
Square Eddy, unable to run in the Queen's Plate because of injury will represent Paul Reddam in either the Dirt Sprint or the Turf Sprint. Square Eddy, a son of the great stallion Smart Strike was second in the Juvenile race last year. Reddam has also entered veteran Red Rocks in the Turf, a race Red Rocks won in 2006.
Jockey Eurico Rosa da Silva has two very strong chances for his first BC victory. He'll ride the four year-old Fatal Bullet in the Spring on Saturday. Da Silva has had the pleasure of firing Fatal Bullet to an impressive win in the Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland on October 9. da Silva will also ride Biofuel, which like Fatal Bullet is trained by Reade Baker. Biofuel, a two year old filly will try and parlay her win in the Grade 3 Mazarine Stakes into a greater win in the BC Juvenile Fillies at a mile and a sixteenth.
You don't have to be a genius to think Frank Stronach has a shot in the Breeders' Cup Classic with Einstein, though to win, he'll have to pin Zenyatta with her first career loss.
Mine That Bird, Canada's two year-old champion, who has not won since the Kentucky Derby has been entered into the Classic
Trainer Steve Asmussen will be sending Jungle Tale to the Juvenile Fillies Turf and the Ontario bred Bickerson, a two year-old filly who has been racing in California will take her best shot in the Juvenile Fillies race.
Friday and Saturday - my confusion notwithstanding will be two long days of great betting on amazing fields for huge amounts of money, Trust me, there will be some wild payoffs, a lot of horse wearing 11, 12 ,13 and 14 on their saddle cloths hitting the board, and somewhere in there ( my prediction) a win by a Canadian horse and a Woodbine based jockey.
