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Post by Peter Gross on Apr 30, 2009 7:40:14 GMT -5
There are 20 horses entered in the 135th Kentucky Derby and by my internationally recognized handicapping standards, as many as 13 could win. So you need to find the one that will score at a big price. Throw out the favourites, Pioneerof the Nile and I Want Revenge. Why? Well, because they looked much too good in winning their previous races and each has a difficulty starting position. I Want Revenge won the Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct in the most awesome manner possible. He staggered out of the gate and lost several lengths. Jockey Joe Talamo did not panic and worked his horse back into the race. But at the top of the stretch, I Want Revenge was jammed in a wall of horses, was clearly bothered by others, but when he got running room, he was amazing, winning by a widening length and a half. There is the chance he will 'bounce' from such a superlative effort. Pioneerof the Nile is the horse all the newspapers want not to win because if they had to put his name in the headlines, eveyrone will assume a typo since the horse'sname jams the 'Pioneer' into the 'of'. Anyway Pioneerof the Nile willnot be the recipientof the garland of roses because, according to a friendof a friend of a guy who knows the dishwasher repairmanof the motherof the guy who works the horses in the mornings, Pioneerof the Nile is not a fanof real dirt.
West Side Bernie will be a nice price, but from the rail he could be buried. Friesen Fire is ideally slotted from the six hole and has won his last three, improving each time, though Gabriel Saez is not necessarily a Kentucky Derby winning jockey.
Papa Clem has post seven, Rafael Bejarano and is coming in off a win in the Arkansas Derry, so if you like this one, bet it because it might be as high as 10-1.
Chocolate Candy could produce a sweet payoff. He’s ridden by Chantal Sutherland’s boyfriend Mike Smith and has a nice stalking strategy.
Dunkirk has post 15, but jockey Edgar Prado is a master at finding the shortest route home, and this horse has only run three times. Maybe he peaks for the Derby..
But take a long and potentially profitable look at Regal Ransom. Jockey Alan Garcia is a tremendous talent and the horse has won over a million already. Can you imagine that - the horse with the most money earned could go off at more than 20-1. Regal Ransom surprised in the United Arab Emirates Derby and clearly loves the real dirt which is what they’re running on at Churchill Downs
The preceding is provided for entertainment and information purposes only and is not intended to by used in any manner to promote, encourage or assist in betting, wagering or speculating on any sports event, horse race, card game or reality show.
Yeah right!
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