Doubles October 3

[peter]

My friends at Woodbine e-mailed me pdfs of Belmont and Woodbine form for today, so let's take a shot at the doubles. I'm only down $38 so far...


At Woodbine, I feel confident that if we take the 5 horse Step Lightly and the 7, Mambo Lake, we'll be halfway home ..Both are coming off their first lifetime races, and should improve. The favourite looks to be #2 Cauotchouc, but this one has faded in each of three races and now is going half a furlong further.


In the second, take 4,5, and 6...The 6 horse Great Addiction has five wins at Woodbine and her four best recent Beyers numbers are all with Emma Jayne aboard. #5 Skip Code has Husbands up . He won on this one at this distance - 1 1/16 - at a higher level in July...and the #4 Bilbo and Landry could pull it off too.


5 and 7 with 4,5, and 6 = $6


The 8th race at Woodbine is a very evenly match field ging 6 1/2 on the Poly. I'm taking # 2 Grosvenor, because it has my name in it...as well as # 6 Big G by the Sea and # 8 Bug's Boy with Chantal Sutherland because she just signed a big contract to be the face of a consmetics company ( hey, don't question my handicapping strategies!).

In the 9th, take 5, because this one is wide open. Pizarro might do it on # 3 Gladys Irena, # 4 Chemistry Flash is working well, #5 One Way Carma is a daughter of speedster One Way Love, #7 Lori's Bunny could hop home and #10 Huggy Rocks is the other one I cricled, but I can't figure out why.


2,6 and 8 with 3,.4,5,7, and 10 for $15


AT Belmont today, lety's use the two outside horses, # 7 Battle of Britain and # 8 Dance Lesson, the former because he'll like the cutback and change of surface, the latter because I'm hoping that last race on the grass will make him happy to return to the dirt.

I'm taking five horses in a indecipherable second - actually six if both halves of the entry go. - 1,2,3 (great works), 6 ( son of Macho Uno), and 9 (Prado)


7 and 8 with 1,2,3,6 and 9 = $10.


For our mid-card double, let's start with the 5th and a beat the fabourite special. Take # 1 Vicarino and # 6 Iron Stetson. The mob will go with either # 3 Gold Trippi off back to back 101/102 Beyers or #5 Bribon whose 118 figure in his last race is just too freaky to be believed.

in the 6th, 1,2, 6 and8..that will cost $8


and the late double at Belmont... in the 8th, just about any horse could win. We're using #2 Our Friend Harvey, # 6 Prince Rahy and # 8 Starforaday, all of whom have shown recent good races on the turf.

In the last race, I whittled it down to four - #1 Hangingonaprayer, # 2 entry, # 8 Fiona Freud, whose last six races have all been sharpand the 10, Go Go Bar who seems to improve every race..

2,6 and 8 with 1, 2, 8 and 10 = $12



That's $57 worth of doubles today. If I crap right out, I'll be down $95

[Peter Gross]

How to bet the Breeders Cup


Taking betting advice from me is kind of like attending a planned parenthood conference chaired by Jamie Lynn Spears. Also, since the Breeders’ Cup will take place a few days after this issue of Down The Stretch comes out, there is the unavoidable redundancy. Well, read this after the B.C. races and see what a genius/moron I am. Here’s how to bet this year’s Breeders’ cup races:


Go against the favourites:

The biggest misconception among bettors sliding their interact cards into the ATMs is that since these are the very best horses in the world running for the biggest purses, it means the favourites are more likely to win.

In, fact, based only on the results from almost every Breeders Cup day since 1982, the opposite is true. On Breeders Cup day, the favourites are more vulnerable than ever, hunted down like frightened prey.

Pick a longshot. Any longshot. Bet with gusto. Cash huge.

Have a look at just a sampling of the prices posted by horses dismissed in recent years by the betting public at the Breeders Cup:

1999: Juvenile Fillies Cash Run $67.00

2000: Distaff Spain $113.80

2002: The Mile Dome Driver $54.00

2003: Distaff Adoration $83.00

Sprint Cajun Beat $47.60

2004: Mile Singletary $35.00

Juvenile Wilco $58.50

Turf Better Talk Now $57.80

2005: Distaff Pleasant Home $63.50

2006: Distaff Round Pond $29.80

Turf Red Rocks $23.60

The Mile Miesques Approval $50.60

Sprint Thors Echo $33.20

Juvenile Street Sense $32.40

Classic Invasor $15.40

2007: Mile Kip Deville $18.40

F&M Turf Lahudood $25.40


That list doesn’t even include Arcangues, who holds the record for the biggest win price of any horse in Breeeders Cup history. Arcangues, who had never raced on dirt, stunned the racing world when he captured the 1993 Classic and, at odds of 133-1, paid $269.20 for a $2 bet. I remember this distinctly because my friend (and advisor to Down The Stretch) Clint Nickerson had win/place and the successful exactor (over $1000!) with Arcangues. In my opinion, that selection alone should make Clint a candidate for the Canadian Horse Racing Hall of Fame.

So why do so many longshots hit the board at the Breeders Cup? Maybe the question should be why do the favourites lose? The reason, of course, is complicated, a multi-ingredient recipe for a life-changing superfecta.

For just about every horse in the Breeders Cup, the race is the most challenging he or she has ever entered. The selection that goes off at 6-5 does so because he shows several terrific races in which he romped home by open lengths. But this runner has never had the full field of mighty horseflesh he how faces on B.C. day. Often, the collective speed, endurance and persistence leads to the sorry fate of the favoured one. Often a horse that has had - until now - everything its way, is pressured from the break, bumped in the first turn, challenged inside and out to the half much faster than ever run before. In the Breeders Cup, champions from around the world are asked to do much more than ever before and, as history has proved, more times than not, the question is too hard.

Heres a statistic that you should write down, stick in your shirt pocket and pull out every time you get the urge to pound a 'sure thing. Favourites have lost 138 of 199 Breeders Cup races and of the 39 horses bet down to less than even money, 22 have lost, making that kind of plunge a losing proposition.

Conclusion: Do not bet on any favourites in this years Breeders Cup. The more outrageous the price on a horse you like, the more time you should spend arguing its case to yourself and your bankroll. The history of the Breeders Cup is built on 10-1 and 20-1 shots that broke the hearts of the people who bet to double their money.

Post Positions:

Quite frankly I can’t explain why so many double digit horses have won Breeders Cup Races over the years, but you cant ignore the evidence. Through 2007, post ten had scored 10 times, post 11, 11 times and post 12 , 12 times -even ugly post 14 has produced 5 winners, and since most of the BC races didn’t even have 14 starters, that’s an intimidating stat.

Recent results bolster this argument. In 2006, Miesauqe's Approval was 24-1 from post 10, but hit the wire first and paid $50.60. That same year, in the Distaff, # 1 Round Pond took the inside route to victory at 13-1, but #13 Happy Ticket made a very happy ticket for some bettors, coming in second and when #14 Balleto filled in the show spot, the tri paid $ 4,355. The fourth horse was #12 and the 1-13-14-12 super was worth $38,595.

But why do high numbers do so well on Breeders Cup day? I do have a theory. I think horseplayers start handicapping from the inside and before they turn the page, they see something they like and it creates a bias against the higher posts. There is also a natural disinclination to horses on the outside to begin with, because they do have to travel further, but keep in mind, these are the best jockeys in the world and when some of the inside horses battle a little too hard to get to the front, the higher number riders sometimes have the advantage of watching whats happening and making decisions later in the race that reap benefits.

Go over all the Breeders Cup charts (yeah, like you’re really going to do that) there are actually several years, where if you bet $2 win/place on every horse number 10 or over, you would leave the track with a profit.


Track Surface : Pro Ride

This is the big variable; even the owners of Curlin didn’t know if he would adapt to the Pro Ride Surface. This will be the first Breeders’ Cup conducted on an artificial strip. The early statistics do point the way, sort of. First of all, since it has been warm the last month and will be warm for the Championship, there will be a consistency with the Pro Ride that perhaps Woodbine did not have in the first several months with Polytrack, which seemed to change personality with the great spread in temperatures. Riders are reporting that there is very little kickback, which allows closers to stay near the pack and this does not discourage the braver jockeys who like to adhere to the rail.

Here’s an interesting stat: More than 80% of the races conducted at Santa Anita over the Pro Ride have been won by horses with at least one workout on the fabricated stuff. This is also a useless figure, since just about every horse on B.C. day will have worked out on the track.

Oh well, how about these:

At six furlongs, (24 races), four horses won wire-to-wire, 11 won from a stalking position and 9 rallied from far back to score.

At one mile (five races), one horse went gate-to-wire, two winners stalked and two rallied.

At a mile and a sixteenth (17 races), only one horse did it on the front end, eight prevailed by stalking and eight other rallied from off the pace.

So I’ve digested all this and come to this conclusion. Bet Edgar Prado on any horse he’s on that offers 7-2 or better.

[doauly]

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